Post Covid Trends: The Rundown

There is a lot of talk of the world being a fundamentally changed place after COVID. And who knows, really, what will come out of all this?

It is a good take, and of course some things will change, but I believe that COVID will bring about few changes that we have not seen or encountered before. In that way, COVID 19 is acting as an accelerator of trends that we’ve already seen present in the industry.

In some ways, fashion can breathe a sigh of relief. As an industry we’ve been taking a collective step back, and seeing what works and what doesn’t. This ‘great pause’ has been the perfect excuse to do what many brands have been paying lip service to for years. In my own business, I’ve rapidly reduced overheads and disposed of excess inventory that I’d been carrying for some time. It’s been the perfect 'spring cleaning’ opportunity.

But what next? Here are my views (not limited) of some of the trends which we will see post COVID:

Post COVID 19 Trends in Fashion & Luxury:

• Contractions in the supply chain and a move to local rather than global production

  • Globalism will not die, but there will be a shift and a focus on products that are produced locally, or nearby

  • This is in particular so for countries which have been seeing a rise in domestic nationalism and anti China sentiment i.e. the US

• Changes in the way Instagram operates (in how consumers consume media)

  • Consumers have always looked for ‘value add’ from who they follow, but the experience of COVID will have more heavily shifted consumers to being more choosy about who they follow and why

  • I believe social media users will expect more ‘value add’ from those they follow than before (for example in the form of E-books, lessons, work outs, etc.) This is especially so as people look to social media for new-ness and new information. This was the case before, but it will be even more so now as digital life provides a large portion of daily entertainment

  • Short form video also will increase as a desirable medium for consumption

• Less opportunities in the Fashion Industry

  • The industry will have a short term contraction (no doubt about that) but it will rebound, and from this return new opportunities will arise (likely in the digital space)

  • More opportunities will be self manufactured (in particular driven by time spent at home during quarantines), and industry opportunities will favour those who can add value through experience or creativity

• A focus on the people not the product

  • In the era of the ‘edit’ (according to JW Anderson), more value will be allocated to craftsmanship and personal touch. Consumers will want to see how their products are made, and feel a closer connection to the person/persons behind the process

• There will be less long distance travel and digital will rise

  • Globalization will still exist. It will not be the focus

  • This will affect fashion weeks, and we may switch to see digital shows and showing of products on the wholesale side

  • We’ve already seen brands put into place digital fashion shows (Versace) and in my wholesale business we’ve started virtual show rooming. So far this has shown to be a much cheaper (far less expensive than trade shows) and more streamlined approach

  • A physical/digital mix is ideal, but the industry is being forced to work through these roadblocks now in a way that it was not required to before

• Seasonless is in

  • YSL has been the first mover here, but this one has needed to happen for a while

  • The pace of the fashion industry has been becoming unsustainable for designers/creatives and for supply chains, and has resulted in much useless overstock

  • Brands (hopefully) will adopt a seasonless model, with a focus on creativity of the collection and not production for production’s sake

• A focus on the environment/sustainability

  • Covid will increase and accelerate this already present trend- there are far better sources concerned with sustainability in fashion, but the slower pace of life in COVID has allowed many consumers to reconnect with nature

  • Sustainability will need to be built into the DNA of the brand of the future

• Goodbye malls and much useless physical retail

  • This is a topic I will touch on later. I am incredibly curious to see what happens with the excess retail space (in particular in the US)

  • I do have my theories about ‘the store of the future’ and what this will look like. I believe it to be focused around less but more experiential retail and popup concepts

• Minimalism vs. Maximalism in consumer tastes

  • There is no consensus on consumer tastes post COVID. This is mostly because both consumers and retailers have little idea of what the landscape will look like as fashion struggles to right itself. China too is showing a slow rebound in luxury sales (in opposition to the expected ‘revenge spending’) and there is little new manufacturing at current as brands struggle to offload excess inventory

  • The debate is on as to whether tastes will shift to minimalist, investment style pieces, or whether consumers will want maximalist celebratory dress (for the rare occasions we will be allowed to go out)

  • I would expect consumers to invest in basics for ‘outside’ the home for maximum use, and colour and excitement in loungewear. We can see this trend on Instagram if we look carefully. People are looking to brighten their ‘at home’ wardrobes, and keep the mood sombre and simple outside the home

  • I do believe loungewear will be a valuable new consumer category. Fendi is currently making a step into elegant loungewear (planned before COVID, and led creatively by Silvia Venturini)

As we adjust to the new normal, these are some of the changes we can observe in the industry. Once again, I want to note that these are all trends that existed before the onset of COVID, and there are several that have been excluded (for example the huge changes in the editorial side of the industry). COVID therefore has brought about a fast acceleration and has acted as the impetus for much of this change.

As the expression goes, when the tide goes out, who is swimming naked? COVID has been an extremely interesting and exposing time for fashion, and I believe most of changes to be painful currently, but necessary and even extremely positive in the long term. Given the consolidated nature of the industry, the entire fashion & luxury system is able to change quickly, and to be a leader in innovation and best practices.

I for one believe the biggest changes and opportunities will be found in the increasing focus on digital, the changing nature of physical retail, and a focus on the seasonless/sizeless categories. And I would recommend to others to watch this space.

Consumer behaviour/tastes appears to be the last piece of this puzzle. And it’s one that I will look to explore further as the situation develops. Who knows how people will truly react to all this? Only time will tell.

Sources: Business of Fashion, Jing Daily, McKinsey.